Byproduct of market-making analysis · Public desk archive https://research.sfg.xyz/en/ 2026-10-20T02:31:39Z Starr Fintech Global This site is a public archive of desk research produced as a byproduct of market-making and market analysis. It is not investment advice and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Reports are generated by an automated pipeline and may contain stale information or supply-chain mapping errors; they must not be used directly as a basis for trading. https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-13/ 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z

最强催化剂是第三批三季报预告(10/12 晚批量落地 60+ 家):联讯仪器(688808)前三季 +1866%~2073%、Q3 单季环比再翻约 3 倍为全场最硬数据,资源侧神火股份(000933)+112%、北方稀土(600111)+135%~139%逻辑独立;最强分支为三季报业绩线(资源红利+光通信测试双轮)与油运(11 日霍尔木兹及阿曼湾 6 艘船同日遇袭、胡塞再袭利雅得机场、布油 106.65 美元)两条线并行;隔夜美股是"油起科技落":道指 +0.38% 但纳指 −0.44%,存储/光通信重挫(闪迪/康宁 −6%),直接压制 A 股算力硬件情绪,也给了光通信测试股"硬数据+软盘面"的分歧结构;AI 应用/传媒迎总龙头新华传媒(600825)停牌核查+2 板梯队高分歧,字节 PineDrama 下载破亿(DAU 约 700 万)是分支内唯一增量催化。驱动类型=业绩·地缘·海外产业·订单,盘前状态判断:缩量市(1.55 万亿)+高标停牌+12 月美联储加息概率升至 87.6%(CME 口径),今日是"业绩预告定价日"与"油运消息反抽日"的叠加局;全场仍处"量能不回到 1.6 万…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-12/recap/ 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

Columbus Day quiet session (S&P volume ~2.29 billion shares, less than half of Friday's 4.78 billion), indices narrowly diverged: Dow +0.38% the lone gainer, S&P -0.06%, Nasdaq/Russell ~-0.4%; the strongest theme was energy (XLE +1.43% leading, WTI intraday V-shaped reversal closing above ~$93, the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" debunked within hours, the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport dominating oil), the weakest was semiconductors (SMH -2.05%, NVDA/AVGO both down). The pre-market list dire…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-12/ 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

This week is a dual event week of "earnings season + inflation data": Tuesday JPM/GS/WFC/C kick off the season, Wednesday September CPI (headline expected +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y), Thursday PPI and retail sales — any one of these could reprice the "September hike done, possibly another hike this year" narrative. The biggest weekend variable is geopolitics: Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire," and crude whipsawed after falling from highs (Brent ~$103-106, WTI 10/9 close $91.01), but t…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-12/recap/ 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

A low-volume cash-in day with divergence tilting cold: two-market turnover shrank to 1.55 trillion (breaking below the pre-market self-set 1.6 trillion warning line) and over 4,300 stocks fell, yet sentiment huddled on a single main line — the AI applications/media call that proved right pre-market was the only true main line (the publishing ladder produced batches of 2-board stocks, and 新华传媒 (Xinhua Media, 600825) went to 10 one-line boards), while oil shipping, ranked joint-first pre-market, e…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-12/ 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is the weekend policy combo: the CPC Central Committee and State Council's "Opinions on Developing New Quality Productive Forces" (authorized for release 10/9 18:04) fully implements the "AI+" initiative, compounded by the Ministry of Finance's RMB 550 billion of remaining local-bond quota and the CSRC's weekend expert symposium + new public-fund rules — the policy backdrop is the warmest in recent months; the strongest branches run in parallel: AI applications/media (S-gr…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-09/recap/ 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

Today was a low-volume recovery day: all three major indexes rose (S&P +0.59%, Dow +0.83%, Nasdaq +0.64%), VIX broke below 15 to close at 14.84, and the 10Y held at 5.24%. The pre-market list's 1 theme, the "CMS star-rating redistribution," perfectly materialized as the day's true main line (XLV +1.58% led, HUM +11.6% hit a 52-week high). The biggest pre-market misjudgment was the AI compute "oversold bounce" — the pre-market +1.4~1.8% gap-ups all fizzled, with SMH −0.65% the sector laggard. No …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-09/ 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

Overnight into this morning is a dual-track session of "an oil-pullback-driven recovery day + a Medicare star-rating reshuffle": Trump said he will not strike Iran before the midterms and called talks with Tehran "constructive"; Brent fell from above $105 to ~$103.5 (−0.8%), WTI $90.9,10Y steadied at 5.23%, and stock index futures — down two straight days — bounced (Nasdaq 100 +0.7~0.8% pre-market, S&P +0.4%), with AI semis bouncing off oversold levels (NVDA/TSM +1.4%/+1.8% pre-market). The hard…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-09/recap/ 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

Deep-V reversal, sentiment thawing from the freezing point: all three major indices fell together in the morning (ChiNext broke below 3000 intraday, STAR 50 down as much as −4.6%), then fully recovered in the afternoon — indices closed marginally higher, and combined turnover across both exchanges expanded to RMB 1.90 trillion (yesterday RMB 1.68 trillion); 69 limit-ups (yesterday 43), board-break rate 16.9% (yesterday 42.7%), promotion rate 27.9% (yesterday 19.6%) — the money-making effect repa…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-09/ 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z 2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is the double hit of oil price and tanker freight: Brent 10/8 night session settled at 104.28 USD/barrel (+3.7%); Houthi ballistic missiles struck the Saudi capital's airport, and Iran-Oman agreed on coordinates for a Hormuz safe-passage corridor (crisis confirmation and de-escalation path coexist); the CTFI import crude freight index printed 19317 on 10/8 (+4146 pts in a single day), with VLCC Middle East-Far East rates at historical extremes (mid-September once reported …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-08/recap/ 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z

Today was a day where "the AI narrative repricing killed tech, while macro came to the rescue": the 30Y auction — the biggest pre-market worry — came in strong (stop-through of ~8bp) and the 10Y yield fell 5bp to 5.23%, but an FT report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is ~$500B (below the ~$700B circulating in the market) triggered an AI-trade selloff. The mega-cap chip index fell −3.4%, the Nasdaq −1.25% led the three major indexes lower, while the Dow +0.10% and Russell +0.03% bucked the tren…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-08/ 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z

Overnight into this morning is an intensifying "rates + oil double whammy": the 30Y Treasury yield spiked to 5.72% intraday, a 24-year high, 10Y 5.34%; Waller went hawkish again this morning ("further rate hikes needed to bring inflation down faster"); Brent jumped +5% to $105 early in the session — an oil tanker 51 nautical miles north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the Houthis attacked Aden airport, and Hormuz transit volume is only 5% of pre-war levels. Futures are down across t…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-08/recap/ 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z

First trading day back after the holiday: gap-up profit-taking, broad declines into the close — Shanghai Composite −0.79%, STAR 50 −4.82% led the downside; across both exchanges only 1698 advancers vs 3748 decliners, turnover RMB 1.68 trillion (volume cleared the bar but dip-buying failed); both pre-market top themes (innovative drugs S, memory S−) delivered big losses, with chemical pharma / biological products / semiconductors topping the declines; the real leaders were oil & gas, shipping, co…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-08/ 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z 2026-10-08T00:00:00Z

First session after the holiday; the holiday's final night delivered a "divergence + hawkish" combo: ① On 10/7 the three major US indices closed modestly lower (Nasdaq −0.22% at 27538.69), but the storage chain stood alone — Micron gained 4.06% and led the entire market by turnover (CNBC closing basis; analyst upgrades + HBM demand), Super Micro +3%, SanDisk +2%; ② the 10Y UST yield spiked intraday to 5.365% (highest since April 2002); after the $39 billion auction was absorbed strongly at 2.77x…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-07/recap/ 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z

A mild, "minutes-confirmed" risk-off on the day after new highs: the September FOMC minutes released at 14:00 ET showed all 19 members backing the rate hike, with a majority deeming "one more hike this year appropriate" — fully confirming the pre-market list's biggest counterparty: long-end rates (10Y closed at 5.28%, 30Y at 5.67%). The major indexes closed modestly lower (S&P -0.22% / Dow -0.66%), but the tape rotated violently: money fled machinery, small caps, the nuclear-fuel chain, and high…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-07/ 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z

The overnight-to-this-morning throughline is "rate backlash after new highs": futures rose together early overnight with S&P futures at an all-time high (Astera, GE Vernova, Arista leading the indications), but after 06:30 ET global bonds sold off — the 30Y Treasury yield rose to 5.70% (highest since 2002) — Dow futures turned ~-0.5% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.6% (as of 06:30–07:30 ET), and yesterday's big AI-networking and nuclear names gave back 2–3.5% together in pre-market. On single-st…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-07/recap/ 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z

Day 7 of the A-share holiday (the final day), no domestic session; the sentiment temperature is read via offshore proxies: on the last holiday day, offshore markets offered not a plus but divergence — HK stocks closed lower on 10/7 (Hang Seng Index −0.61% at 24133.01, Hang Seng Tech −0.77%, Tencent quotes closing basis); the pre-market watchlist's dual main lines both stumbled on the final validation day: innovative-drug H shares pulled back across the board, and the sentiment leader 康希诺生物 H (Ca…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-07/ 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z 2026-10-07T00:00:00Z

Ahead of the holiday's final verification night, the news flow has formed two main lines: ① innovative drugs / BD going overseas — HK stocks exploded across the board on 10/6 (CanSino Biologics (06185.HK) single-day +14.04%, Hang Seng Biotech Index at a new year high), the only main line validated by overseas markets on multiple consecutive days during the holiday (rebounding on 10/5 and 10/6 after the 10/2 liquidity-driven mispricing sell-off); ② memory supercycle — Micron's FY2026Q4 blockbuste…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-06/recap/ 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-on: the 10Y Treasury yield fell back from 24-year-high territory to 5.27% (-4bp), oil dropped ~2%, the S&P closed +0.58% at 7,818.93 and the Nasdaq +0.45% at 27,599.79 — both record closes; but the strongest theme on the tape was not the AI compute bet from pre-market — it was power/nuclear (Google signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation; CEG +12.25% was 1 in the S&P, XLU +2.95% led all sectors) — the biggest surprise theme missed by the pre-market list; the p…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-06/ 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z

Catalysts are dense from overnight into this morning: the strongest theme is the AI compute/semiconductor rally continuing — TSMC ADR rose +2.75% on Monday to $485.80, both all-time highs (Musk confirmed over the weekend that he is in talks with TSMC over the Terafab Texas fab; TSM is in its 10/5–10/14 earnings quiet period, Q3 results due 10/15); NVIDIA also hit a new high and the market is starting to discuss a $6 trillion market cap (~+4.6% away); on the earnings line, Apogee (APOG) reported …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-06/recap/ 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z

Day 6 of the A-share holiday break with no domestic tape; the sentiment temperature reads through overseas proxies: the holiday's strongest main line — innovative drugs — keeps getting validated by Hong Kong (10/6 intraday: 康方生物 (Akeso, 09926.HK) +3.87%, 药明康德 H (WuXi AppTec H, 02359.HK) +2.64%, 药明生物 (WuXi Biologics, 02269.HK) +4.15%), the PCB/CCL mapping went vertical on 10/5 and hit high-level divergence on 10/6 (建滔积层板 (Kingboard Laminates, 01888.HK) +11.94% on 10/5 → about −0.63% near the clos…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-06/ 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst over the National Day holiday (9/30 15:00 → 10/6 07:00) is innovative drugs going overseas: AstraZeneca's USD 2 billion strategic investment in Summit (~12% stake, USD 18.36/share), taking the lead on the global combination development of Akeso's ivonescimab (9/29), plus Hengrui Medicine licensing its GLP-1/GIP dual agonist HRS-1596 to Novo Nordisk (USD 300 million upfront, up to USD 2.6 billion total potential, 9/29–9/30), layered with the "15th Five-Year" Pharmaceutical …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-05/recap/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z

Today risk-on continued: ISM Services at 54.9 was roughly in line, and the oil pullback soothed inflation worries; all three major indexes rose, with the S&P (+0.66% to close at 7,773.95) and the Nasdaq (+1.05% to close at 27,477.31) both setting all-time closing highs, led by AI heavyweight champions (NVDA +2.12% closing at a new high, AVGO +2.08%, META +1.90%). The pre-market list's directional hit rate was roughly two-thirds — the AI chain and M&A arbitrage main lines fully delivered, and the…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-05/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z

Catalysts have been dense from the weekend through this morning: the strongest events are Vaxcyte (PCVX) top-line positive Phase III OPUS-1 for its 31-valent pneumococcal vaccine, up +53%~+68% pre-market at one point (06:50–08:15 ET quotes ~$86→$95, still swinging violently), plus Schneider Electric's $22.6B all-cash acquisition of PTC (pre-market +36%), the Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. $110B deal expected to close tomorrow (10/6) (pre-market +103%), C.H. Robinson's proposed ~$5B acquisition …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-05/recap/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z

Day 5 of the holiday: no A-share trading, no price reconciliation; what actually happened today was in Hong Kong — after a lower open, losses narrowed and divergence narrowed, the Hang Seng Index finished basically flat (+0.05%) while Hang Seng Tech turned positive (+0.41%), a clear sentiment repair versus 10/2 (Hang Seng -1.21%, down as much as -3% intraday). Structurally, semiconductors rallied across the board as the absolute main line in Hong Kong today: 澜起科技 H (Montage Technology H, 06809.H…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-05/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z

Day 5 of the holiday; the biggest macro variable of the holiday has landed: US September nonfarm payrolls +29,000, far below the expected 84,000-90,000; unemployment rose to 4.2%; average hourly earnings +3.0% YoY, the weakest since May 2021 (BLS) — October rate-hike expectations collapsed Friday to about 22% (a December 25bp hike remains the mainstream scenario at 73.5%-80%+, Polymarket 10/4); US stocks closed higher Friday (Nasdaq +1.19%, a record closing high), but the bond market reversed in…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-02/recap/ 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z

Today was a structural risk-on market: the big September payrolls miss (+29,000 vs +84,000 expected, unemployment rising to 4.2%) instead ignited the rate-cut trade — all three major indexes rose (S&P +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.19%), VIX plunged 6.6% to 15.31; the strongest theme was the full AI hardware chain (semiconductor ETFs +2% or more, AVGO +3.35%, TSLA +4.65% after a deliveries beat, optical communications' three straight up days), while the headliner pre-market theme "storage supercycle" turned …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-02/ 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z

The strongest overnight catalyst is Micron (MU) Q4 results and Q1 guidance dramatically beating across the board (revenue guidance of $61.5B vs. market expectation of ~$57B, another company record) + memory cost pass-through to end products (Samsung raising Galaxy S26 prices), extending the memory supercycle theme; on the industry front, Broadcom providing Anthropic with up to $42 billion in financing, with Anthropic possibly becoming its largest chip-design customer next year, reinforcing the A…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-02/recap/ 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z

Day 2 of the holiday: no A-share trading, no price reconciliation; what actually happened was in Hong Kong — the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.21% (down over 3% intraday at one point), Hang Seng Tech fell 2.45% at midday, as tech stocks sold off broadly on risk aversion on the eve of nonfarm payrolls, with overseas funds in a cold holiday risk mood; but the tape was not without bright spots: Seres' HK listing (09927) rose 5.59% against the trend (up as much as +16.6% intraday), as the new five-y…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-02/ 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z 2026-10-02T00:00:00Z

On holiday day 2, the mainlines received real-gain endorsement: the three major US indexes edged up overnight (S&P +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.04%, Dow +0.04%), but optical communications and memory chip stocks surged at the sector level — Coherent up over 10%, Ciena and Lumentum up over 7%, SK Hynix up over 5%, Corning up over 4%, Micron up over 3%, SanDisk and Seagate up over 2%; Nvidia +1%, a record close since mid-May; Synopsys +12% (teaming up with OpenAI to develop chip-design AI models) (CLS.cn) — …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-01/recap/ 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z

Today was a cautious risk-on of "intraday bond-rout shock, late-session relief as the bond market exhausted itself": the 10Y Treasury spiked to 5.344% intraday (highest since 2002), knocking all three major indexes into the red at one point, with the VIX spiking to 17.59; yields reversed late morning (10Y closed at 5.24%, -5bp) and equities recovered their losses — the S&P +0.19%, the Dow/Nasdaq up a modest +0.04% (CNBC). The strongest theme was the AI infrastructure hardware chain (SMH +1.45%, …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-10-01/ 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is "Micron's beat-and-raise landing": MU FQ4'26 revenue $54.23B (+379%, first time above $50B) far above consensus ~$51.2B, non-GAAP EPS $33.42 (vs $31.45), gross margin 87.0%; FQ1'27 guidance revenue $61.5B±1.5B (about 8% above consensus ~$56.8B), EPS $38.15±1.0; management said memory supply stays tight through 2028, and 2027 HBM is sold out with rising prices — but the stock isn't buying it: after-hours it spiked then faded to $1,056.75 (-0.8%), and pre-market at 9:25am…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-01/recap/ 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z

Day 1 of the National Day closure, no tape to reconcile — sentiment carries over from the 9/30 close (divergent and cautiously biased, promotion rate 21.1%, highest board at 7 consecutive limit-ups); this morning's pre-market list is a holiday special (all conclusions target 10/8), and the events it previewed for today (Huawei Mate90 launch at 10:00, on sale at 12:08) played out as scripted, with spec details corrected (not a standard 9050 Pro across all models — actually tiered 9030/9035/9050 P…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-10-01/ 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z

First night of the National Day holiday, and the Micron earnings the world's money cares most about landed — beating the top end of guidance across the board: FY26Q4 revenue $54.23 billion (consensus ~$51.1 billion), gross margin 87.0%, EPS $33.42; Q1 FY27 revenue guidance of $61.5 billion (market consensus $57-59 billion) far above expectations; management explicitly stated DRAM/NAND supply stays tight through 2027-2028, "no visibility on when supply-demand returns to balance," and 2027 HBM sup…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-30/recap/ 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z

A divergent, weaker quarter-end close: Dow -0.86%, S&P -0.25%, with both closing at their intraday lows; Nasdaq +0.24% the only green index; the strongest theme remained AI compute/memory (SMH +0.35%, XLK +0.64% among the few gaining sectors); the pre-market checklist's "pothole avoidance" was perfect (avoided names MRNA -5.4%, FICO -4.1%, JBL -10.0% all fell hard; the "don't chase HPE/HOOD gaps" call was precise), while offensive hits were middling; post-market Micron posted a big beat with a b…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-30/ 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z

Today's strongest catalyst is "Micron after-hours earnings" (after close 9/30, call at 4:30pm ET): consensus adj EPS ~$31.4, revenue ~$51B (YoY +350%); the company previously guided revenue $50B±$1B, GM ~86%; closed 9/29 at $1,065.08 (+256% YTD), rose to ~$1,072 after hours, range-bound at $1,066–1,082 pre-market, options imply ±8.5% move — tonight is the "midterm exam" of the AI memory supercycle, and the result directly sets the near-term direction of SMH/SOXX and the AI hardware chain. · Thre…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-30/recap/ 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z

Violent high-to-low rotation under an index-level paint job: STAR 50 (000688) -2.51% slammed (roughly -8% on the week); semiconductors posted a main-force net outflow of RMB 13.46 billion (THS caliber), the biggest bleed in the market; money stampeded into pharma (biologics +4.63%, best in the market; medical services +3.11%; chemical pharmaceuticals +2.11%), real-estate bellwethers, and baijiu/banks. The SSE Composite closed +0.31% at 3842.19, yet the advance/decline ratio was just 0.91. The pr…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-30/ 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z

On the last pre-holiday trading day, the strongest pre-market catalyst is announcement-grade real money: 迪哲医药-U (Dizal Pharma, 688192, STAR) announced it has received the US$600 million upfront payment from AstraZeneca (global license of 舒沃哲; total deal value US$1.5 billion + sales royalty), roughly RMB 4.3 billion, about 1/6 of its current market cap — an S/A-grade "loss-making innovative drug refilled overnight" event. The property chain has policy-announcement resonance: after the three minis…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-29/recap/ 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z

Today was a weakly differentiated market under rate pressure: the 30-year Treasury yield hit a roughly 24-year high and the 10Y closed at 5.255%; the three major indexes closed modestly lower (S&P -0.17% / Dow -0.26% / Nasdaq -0.09%), but beneath the surface it was a structural session of oversold chip rebounds (SMH +1.15% / SOXX +1.19%, ARM +5% intraday, MRVL +4%) with defensives rotating in (XLU +1.17%), and VIX closed at 16.04, essentially flat — a down day without panic, a typical "long-end …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-29/ 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z

The strongest catalyst is NVIDIA: After the close on 9/28 it announced a new $150 billion share repurchase (total authorization $235 billion, running through January 2028 — the largest single buyback authorization in U.S. history, exceeding Apple's $110 billion in 2024), and released new AI safety software for AI agents plus the OpenShell open-source tool — directly propping up the AI leader under the weight of 10Y Treasury yields at 5.25%. NVDA rose +2.57% against the trend on Monday to close a…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-29/recap/ 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z

Weak recovery the day after sentiment hit freezing point: all three major indexes closed green (Shanghai Composite +0.18%), 57 limit-ups vs 10 limit-downs (56 limit-downs yesterday), the advancement rate rebounded from 15% to 30%, and the broken-board rate was just 12%; but half-day volume shrank by RMB 284.8 billion and total turnover never came back — this is a recovery, not a reversal. The strongest themes switched from pre-market's "auto restructuring" to property chain + solid-state battery…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-29/ 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z

In the pre-holiday ebb phase, the strongest catalyst in this morning's news flow is announcement-grade: GAC Group (广汽集团, 601238, main board) resumes trading today after a halt of about two weeks, planning to issue shares to acquire a 50% stake in FAW Toyota (issue price RMB 5.75/share) — an S-tier restructuring event that directly rewrites the financial statements. In the supporting auto chain: the 9/28 HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility, 鸿蒙智行) launch event (Zhijie RX (智界 RX) launched from RMB 2…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-28/recap/ 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z

Today was selective risk-off: the AI-safety shock (the weekend OpenAI training-halt event) played out per the pre-market script — the Nasdaq led the three major indexes lower at -0.92%, the 10Y Treasury yield stepped up again to 5.24%, VIX +8% to 16.07, and spot gold plunged about 4% to break below $4,200; the pre-market list hit rate was high: NVDA's buyback bucked the tape with +1.7%, delivering on "priority deep-dive"; GFI -12.9% and the gold-miners sector avoid fully delivered; and "don't ch…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-28/ 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z

Strongest catalyst: NVIDIA officially announced pre-market a +$150 billion share buyback authorization (total authorization rising to $235 billion, the largest increase in history, running through FY2028), up ~+1.5% pre-market against the tape, sharply diverging from AMD/INTC's declines — this is today's highest-certainty stock-specific bullish driver. Strongest theme: the second round of "AI safety shock," triggered over the weekend by OpenAI halting training of some of its latest models over A…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-28/recap/ 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z

The expected "gap-up repair" never came — what came instead was a low-open, low-close, high-volume second leg down: SSE Composite -1.67% to close at 3823.62 (below the 9/24 low of 3888, intraday low 3806.67), ChiNext -4.53%, STAR 50 -4.06%; two-market turnover RMB 1.7 trillion (up RMB 49.4 billion vs 9/24), over 4,500 stocks fell; 33 limit-ups (9/24: 52), 56 limit-downs (9/24: 13); yesterday's 52 limit-up stocks averaged -1.95% today, median -3.74% — sentiment slid another notch from the upper e…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-28/ 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z

The strongest holiday news is macro: the China-US presidential summit produced a consensus of eight deliverables (9/23–9/25, including a "USD 30 billion reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement", the trade truce extended to January 10, 2027 (per the US Treasury Secretary; China has not denied it), and an AI dialogue mechanism), directly repairing risk appetite across global markets; on A-shares' previous trading day (9/24) the market had just suffered a panic flush — a net main-force outflow of R…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-21/recap/ 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z

Strong risk-on, but not for the reason the pre-market gave. The Nasdaq +2.26% to close at 27,122.09, a record closing high; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +4.29%, Nasdaq 100 +2.83%, S&P 500 +1.49%, Dow +0.71%, Russell 2000 just +0.52%. AMD closed at 615.52 (+9.95%), hit an intraday all-time high of 616.69, and its market cap rose above USD 1.005 trillion. · Strongest theme: AI application-layer catalysts spilling over into server CPUs and semiconductors. The day's real drivers were two — (…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-21/ 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z

There is only one trade today: Saudi crude exports have recovered (back above 4 million bpd in September, versus a low of just 2.4 million bpd in August), and WTI fell for a 4th consecutive session to $97.57 (−2.72%) — and it was precisely oil-driven inflation that forced the Fed's first rate hike in over three years on 9/16. Oil eases → inflation expectations and the term premium fall back → yields decline across the curve → duration and high-beta assets rebound broadly. (⚠️ Note: the shape of …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/a-share/2026-09-18/ 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z

The hardest fact today is not a headline, it is a spread that can be computed within one and the same timestamp and one and the same currency: on 9/17 the A-share market killed precious-metal equities on a "Fed rate hike" narrative, −5% to −7%, while RMB metal futures closing the very same day barely fell (SHFE silver −1.51%, SHFE gold −0.59%, SHFE copper +0.71%) — the same-period equity-vs-commodity divergence is −4.56pp for gold, −4.49pp for silver, −3.08pp for copper. But this branch carries …

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-17/recap/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

Today was risk-on, but not the kind of risk-on this morning's pre-market watchlist described — the leader was not its No. 1 theme, it was its No. 3 theme. S&P +1.14%, Nasdaq +1.69%, Dow +0.61%, Russell +0.55%, VIX down another 12.82% to 15.44, 10-year Treasury −7.0bp to 4.934%. But the genuine leader was AI compute/semiconductors (basket +5.00%, 12/12 up), while the AI data-center power/electromechanical basket listed as the No. 1 theme this morning managed only +1.98%, with 5 of 16 closing down…

https://research.sfg.xyz/en/us/2026-09-17/ 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z

Yesterday the Fed hiked because of oil, and today oil collapsed on its own — that is the one-sentence explanation for this entire morning. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% at 09-16 14:00 ET, 12-0 unanimous, the first hike since 2023. Warsh put the reasoning bluntly at the press conference: "We cannot influence any single price, but what we can do and will do is make sure that changes in relative prices do not spill over, do not produce second- and third-order effects." (Fed press conference tra…