A-Share Pre-Market Brief | 2026-10-02 Friday

Market Closed Notice: Closed for the National Day holiday (market closed 10/1 through 10/7; trading resumes as normal from Thursday 10/8, CLS.cn¹). This list is Holiday Special Edition No. 2: time window = all of 10/1 (Thursday) → this morning, to be used together with yesterday's special; all conclusions are priced for the 10/8 reopening. Why long-holiday pricing is different (must read): US stocks still have 4 trading days left in the holiday (10/2-10/7). Last night (10/1 US Eastern), US stocks gave the holiday's first sector-level real-gain confirmation: optical communications and memory chip stocks surged (Coherent +10%, SK Hynix +5%, Micron +3%) — not just narrative. Tonight at 20:30, US September nonfarm payrolls (consensus +0.09~0.1 million) is the holiday's first two-way macro event, layered on a tightening backdrop of 30Y Treasury yields at a 24-year high and Fed officials possibly hiking again this year (Caixin²); the data's strength directly sets overseas risk appetite for the holiday — be sure to recalibrate this list on the eve of 10/8. Data conventions: A-share quotes are as of the 9/30 close; US stocks are as of the 10/1 (US Eastern) close, i.e. early morning 10/2 Beijing time; fundamentals are from 2026 interim reports + announcements of the 9/30 evening. Price limits: main board ±10%｜ChiNext/STAR ±20%｜Beijing Stock Exchange ±30%; every stock below is labeled with its board, and limit-up determinations follow its board's limit.

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0. Today's One-Line Summary

On holiday day 2, the mainlines received real-gain endorsement: the three major US indexes edged up overnight (S&P +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.04%, Dow +0.04%), but optical communications and memory chip stocks surged at the sector level — Coherent up over 10%, Ciena and Lumentum up over 7%, SK Hynix up over 5%, Corning up over 4%, Micron up over 3%, SanDisk and Seagate up over 2%; Nvidia +1%, a record close since mid-May; Synopsys +12% (teaming up with OpenAI to develop chip-design AI models) (CLS.cn³) — for the 10/8 reopening, the two mainlines (memory + optical modules) are seeing "real money buying" in overseas markets; strength ranking holds: Memory S > Optical Communications A. The new variable comes from oil: after Brent climbed back above USD 100 on 10/1, it rose another 4.34% this morning to USD 102.29 (WTI +2.91% to USD 93.05); the US-Iran war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz has never reopened, taking the geopolitical premium up another notch (CLS.cn⁴) — the oil & gas / tanker shipping chain enters the holiday watch list. Huawei Mate90 was launched at 10:00 yesterday and went on sale at 12:08: the whole lineup runs Kirin 9030/9035/9050 Pro, a 30B on-device LLM, priced RMB 5,999-18,999; Richard Yu said overall performance is up 20%-31% versus the last generation (Star Market Daily⁵); first-day store feedback is "selling very well, only a few units left", but there are no official sales figures yet. September auto data is out: BYD 0.4636 million vehicles +16.99%, exports 0.1807 million; Geely 0.292 million +7%; Great Wall 0.115 million -14% (CLS.cn⁶). Driver types: overseas industry real gains (memory/optical comm) · product prices (crude oil) · events (Huawei first sale) · macro (tonight's NFP). Holiday tone: the mainlines have delivered real gains, but tonight's NFP and the remaining 4 US trading days are still unresolved — keep "reviewing daily, finalizing on the eve of 10/8".

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1. News Overview

Slow-variable tracking: ① Tonight's NFP (20:30) + the 4 remaining US trading days of the holiday; ② tightening backdrop unchanged: 30Y Treasuries at a 24-year high, market pricing at least 1 more Fed hike this year (as early as October); core PCE below expectations only marginally eases (Caixin²); ③ oil: Brent above USD 102, US-Iran talks progress (the Iranian delegation leaving New York was a scheduled itinerary) and whether Hormuz reopens are the two-way switches; ④ FTSE A50 futures and HK market moves 10/2-10/7 are key reference indicators for the A-share reopening (Stock Connect absent, foreign-priced — mind volume distortion); ⑤ Huawei Mate90 daily first-sale/premium data through the holiday; ⑥ 10/8 Fed meeting minutes + TSMC September revenue; ⑦ 10/13 first Shanghai Q3 report (Grinm Advanced Materials); ⑧ Fourth Plenum 10/26-29.

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2. Strongest Positive Branches, Ranked

Branch dictionary for the whole piece: memory supercycle (overnight real-gain confirmation)｜optical communications/modules (overnight real-gain confirmation)｜oil & gas/tanker shipping (new entrant this holiday)｜semiconductor equipment/domestic chain｜Huawei chain (Mate90 first sale)｜AI compute mapping｜auto chain (September sales)｜increase-hold & buybacks and events｜lithium/solid-state (high-flyer risk). Each stock belongs to exactly one branch; Sections 3/7 are consistent with this section.

Branch notes:

• Memory (No. 1): the holiday logic upgraded from "narrative" to "real gains" — the day after Micron's earnings, money didn't cash out and run; it bought SK Hynix (purest DRAM) and SanDisk/Seagate (NAND) up together, showing US stocks are pricing a "2027-2028 shortage" cross-year logic, not a single-quarter game. This is the strongest holiday evidence for a high-confidence gap-up in the A-share memory chain on 10/8. The only risk left is macro: if tonight's NFP significantly beats, the tightening trade returns and high-β memory is hit first; also note the Micron Q1 gross-margin guide down QoQ bear narrative hasn't gone away — divergence remains, but overnight price action says the bulls have the upper hand for now.
• Optical communications (No. 2): Coherent +10% is the global weather vane for optical components/modules; Lumentum and Ciena both +7% makes it sector-level, not single-stock; Corning +4% (fiber cable). Among A-share mappings, Zhongji Innolight / Eoptolink are the direct peers, Tianfu maps to components, and Zhishang Technology (MPO) has the biggest elasticity but the flimsiest fundamentals. Overnight real gains + yesterday's Zhishang MoU make optical comm the smoothest holiday fermenting branch; the suppressors remain US yields and holiday US volatility.
• Oil & gas/shipping (No. 3, new entrant): Brent above USD 102 rests on "US-Iran war on for 6 months without stopping + Hormuz never reopened" (Caixin¹⁶). Two layers must be clear: oil-price elasticity sits upstream (CNOOC 600938 as linked watch, unscored here); rate elasticity sits with COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, H1 net profit attributable to parent ~RMB 4.5 billion +141%, foreign-trade tanker gross profit +262%, CLS.cn¹⁷) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, VLOC long-term agreements + 50 VLCCs). This is a two-way branch: if US-Iran breaks through, oil and rates fall just as fast; and tanker H1 earnings already priced in elevated rates at large — chasing oil prices into tankers over the holiday requires staying half sober. Grade B+, ranked behind the mainlines.
• Huawei chain (No. 5): launch delivered = the known card is cashed; before official first-sale numbers, sentiment rides on store queues and "few units left"; supply-chain mapping still treated as "no BOM proof = pure concept", Pass criteria same as yesterday.
• Auto chain (No. 7): BYD's September data is positive (record single month, 0.18 million exports), but the Jan-Sep cumulative -3.94% says it's still "volume for price"; Great Wall -14% flags divergence. Holiday grade B, not an attack direction.

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3. Stock Positive-Intensity Leaderboard

Ranked by the Section 4 scoring model (whole-market coverage, main board/ChiNext/STAR treated equally, ordered by evidence strength). Holiday special: all conclusions face the 10/8 reopening. Changes vs yesterday's special: Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink each +1 pt (overnight sector-level real gains in optical comm); newly added COSCO Shipping Energy (oil & gas/shipping branch), BYD (auto chain data), CNOOC (oil linkage, unscored); the rest unchanged.

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4. Stock Scoring Model

Total = sum of seven base components (cap 95 pts) + risk deduction (0 to -15). Components and weights: source authority 0-15 / directness 0-20 / earnings elasticity 0-15 / industry position & fundamentals 0-15 / expectation gap 0-10 / theme durability 0-10 / A-share trading attributes 0-10 / risk deduction 0 to -15.

(Stocks ranked No. 11 and below use simplified ratings with the same criteria; components omitted, totals in Section 3.) COSCO Shipping Energy note: durability gets only 6 pts — the tanker boom depends on the war and negotiation progress, its event-driven nature stronger than memory's "maker cross-year commitment"; risk deduction -10: H1 earnings already largely priced in at elevated rates, chasing means buying pre-spent earnings. Fundamentals scoring framework: revenue / net profit / gross margin / cash flow / debt ratio / moat / niche leadership, all data from 2026 interim reports and company announcements, see Section 5.

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5. Top 10 Stock Deep Dives

51 兆易创新603986Memory · Leaderboard #1 · Priority deep-dive (A/72) · main board ±10%

• Related news: overnight SK Hynix +5%, Micron +3%, SanDisk/Seagate +2% (CLS.cn³); early 10/1 Micron FY26Q4 beat across the board, guiding 2027-2028 continued shortage (NetEase Global Markets¹⁸); DDR5 spot at USD 57.53 on 10/1, +480% YoY (MemoryIndex¹²).
• Positive logic: niche follow-through, not a direct DDR5 beneficiary. Overseas majors exiting niche DRAM → DDR4/niche supply-demand follow-through; plus a 1.80% stake in ChangXin Memory Technologies (fair value RMB 10.06 billion, 23.7% of total assets) as a second-order domestic DRAM leverage. It hits revenue and gross margin, not pure sentiment.
• Branch stage: mid supercycle. Key change: the day after Micron's earnings, US memory didn't cash out — it kept gaining, meaning the market prices a cross-year shortage, not a single-quarter game; the branch advances from "logic restart" toward "second-wave confirmation".
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 11.566 billion +178.67%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.857 billion +1091.5%, ex-non-recurring RMB 4.883 billion +796.9%; operating cash flow RMB 6.048 billion +531% (cash conversion 0.88, best in chain); weighted ROE 23.13% (half-year basis, not annualized); debt ratio 11.5%, no bank borrowings; inventory RMB 4.184 billion (+36%, the reservoir of the upcycle). 9/30 close RMB 353.90, market cap RMB 249.14 billion, PE (TTM) ~31.4x (~18x annualized H1 dynamic is peak-profit annualization, distorted — don't use alone).
• Industry position: NOR Flash global top three, niche DRAM/SLC NAND front rank, domestic MCU leader.
• Technicals/sentiment: 9/30 -3.72% on RMB 8.65 billion volume — pre-earnings risk-aversion turnover; ~47% drawdown from the 7/9 high of RMB 663, the deepest among memory cores. Main board ±10%.
• Final call: the memory chain's triple combo of "most real earnings delivery + lowest valuation + cleanest chips". Overnight gains further cement the 10/8 gap-up expectation; realization risks are tonight's NFP (strong data → tightening → high-β pressure) and the gap-up magnitude (>5% in one move = treat as take-profit).

52 中际旭创300308Optical comm · Leaderboard #2 · Priority deep-dive (A/71) · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: overnight Coherent up over 10%, Ciena/Lumentum up over 7%, Corning +4% (global sector-level real gain in optical comm); Nvidia +1%, a record close since mid-May; Google Gemini 4 Argon launched (per overseas media roundup, early 10/1); August core PCE 3.0% below expectations (CLS.cn³, TradingKey¹⁹).
• Positive logic: direct order path — ~94% of revenue from overseas AI data centers (2026H1 overseas revenue RMB 39.615 billion, +209.9%), cloud capex → direct 800G/1.6T pass-through; 1.6T silicon photonics "ramping at scale, shipments climbing quarter by quarter" (company phrasing as of July — re-verify before the reopening).
• Branch stage: optical module main upward leg; overnight US peers rising together = direct endorsement of overseas sentiment; the holiday suppressor (US yields) got marginal relief from below-expectation PCE.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 41.778 billion +182.49%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 13.651 billion +241.70%, gross margin 46.25% (+6.93pct); debt ratio 36%. Flaws: operating cash flow RMB 1.8 billion (-44%, only 13% of net profit), receivables RMB 15 billion (+139%), inventory RMB 19.8 billion. PE (TTM) ~43.9x (A-share share count; ~46.6x including H-shares); as of 9/29 broker consensus 2026E net profit ~RMB 35.75 billion → dynamic ~25x. Also note: 9/28 announced an interim dividend of RMB 12 per 10 shares (RMB 1.331 billion total), record date 10/9, ex-date 10/12 — buyers on 10/8 get the dividend; don't misread the ex-gap as weakness.
• Industry position: global optical module leader, >40% share above 800G (media basis).
• Technicals/sentiment: 9/30 turnover RMB 12.85 billion, the day's largest, closing -0.56% on huge volume — resilient. ChiNext ±20%.
• Final call: of the two holiday mainlines, optical comm is the branch with "most direct overnight real gains", and Zhongji Innolight is the first-rank A-share mapping; if memory gaps up and diverges on 10/8, money may rotate into optical modules — it also benefits from "memory profit-taking spillover".

53 澜起科技688008Memory/interface · Leaderboard #3 · Priority deep-dive (A-/67) · STAR ±20%

• Related news: same Micron earnings + overnight memory gains; Micron "has locked in the vast majority of 2027 HBM supply and is co-developing NVHBM with Nvidia" (per overseas media).
• Positive logic: volume-and-structure logic — RCD/CKD/MRCD/MDB volume with server DIMM totals and DDR5 sub-generation upgrades; it doesn't ride DRAM price hikes, so it's not directly attacked by the "gross margin peak" bear narrative — the "cleanest" logic in the memory chain.
• Branch stage: early accelerated earnings delivery: Q2 revenue RMB 1.874 billion +32.8% (Q1 +19.5%, accelerating).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 3.335 billion +26.66%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.997 billion +72.33% (includes interest/investment income; ex-non-recurring RMB 1.322 billion +21.17% — the headline-vs-ex gap is the main flaw); gross margin 65.31%, a record high; debt ratio only 7.5%, cash plus trading financial assets ~RMB 18 billion. PE (TTM) ~80x.
• Industry position: global memory-interface chip oligopoly.
• Technicals/sentiment: STAR ±20%, followed the STAR50 -2.51% pullback on 9/30; the hardest fundamentals among the STAR compute chain.
• Final call: if memory gaps up and diverges on 10/8, Montage is "logically the hardest to attack"; the 80x PE means what it fears is AI server shipment cadence being disproven, not memory prices. A low-volatility substitute for the memory branch.

54 江波龙301308Memory · Leaderboard #4 · Watch closely (A-/66) · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: same Micron earnings + overnight gains; Micron NAND ASP +30% QoQ, data-center SSD quarterly revenue near USD 10 billion (+10x YoY).
• Positive logic: low-cost inventory revaluation + ASP up, elasticity already in the P&L (gross margin 12.96%→58.9%), the most direct "memory price hike = profit" pass-through; enterprise SSD #1 domestically (IDC capacity basis); the Micron data-center SSD narrative is a mapping catalyst for its enterprise line.
• Branch stage: mid price-hike delivery, Q2 revenue RMB 14.18 billion, net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.715 billion, accelerating QoQ.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 24.088 billion +136.26%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 10.577 billion (only RMB 15 million a year earlier — a low base that can't persist); ex-non-recurring RMB 10.047 billion; gross margin 12.96% (FY2025) → 58.9% (H1 cumulative), 61.3% in the Q2 single quarter. Clear top-of-cycle signals: operating cash flow -RMB 3.151 billion, inventory RMB 25.777 billion (+121% from year start, 60.1% of total assets), debt ratio 56.13%. 9/30 close RMB 301.93, market cap RMB 138.78 billion, PE (TTM) ~11.6x; H-share issuance in progress (media report 9/9).
• Industry position: domestic storage module leader (Lexar + FORESEE).
• Technicals/sentiment: ChiNext ±20%, already pulled back ~13% in late September.
• Final call: the biggest elasticity and the biggest risk — a high-β trading tool, not a ballast; the inventory/cash-flow top combo means once contract prices flatten QoQ, the profit-and-valuation double-kill far exceeds that of design houses. The Q3 pre-announcement (window 10/15) is the make-or-break verification point.

55 佰维存储688525Memory · Leaderboard #5 · Watch closely (A-/65) · STAR ±20%

• Related news: same Micron earnings + overnight gains; Micron "automotive & embedded revenue +47% QoQ, L4 autonomous-driving memory demand over 200GB" (per overseas media) maps to its embedded narrative.
• Positive logic: on-device AI memory (H1 revenue RMB 2.86 billion +433.6%, with Meta/Google/Alibaba/Xiaomi as customers) + low-cost inventory revaluation.
• Branch stage: mid price-hike delivery, Q2 net profit attributable to parent RMB 4.267 billion, +47% QoQ; a rare interim cash dividend (RMB 4.242 per 10 shares).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 15.575 billion +298.1%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 7.166 billion (RMB -0.226 billion a year earlier), gross margin 54.81% (FY2025 21.44%); weighted ROE 78.69% (half-year, not annualized; cyclical profit + big dividend shrank the equity base). Conspicuous risks: operating cash flow -RMB 6.261 billion, inventory RMB 18.168 billion = 54.48% of total assets, debt ratio 61.64%. PE (TTM) ~11x.
• Industry position: on-device storage modules global #1 (Frost & Sullivan, by 2025 revenue).
• Technicals/sentiment: STAR ±20%; elasticity and volatility both above Longsys.
• Final call: pick one of the two; Biwin is the purer on-device AI play with the deeper cash-flow hole. On a 10/8 memory gap-up it's #1 in elasticity, and #1 in drops if the gap-up fades. Trading position only.

56 新易盛300502Optical comm · Leaderboard #6 · Watch closely (B+/64) · ChiNext ±20%

• Related news: overnight Coherent +10% / Lumentum +7% / Ciena +7% sector-level real gains; Nvidia record close (CLS.cn³).
• Positive logic: same chain as Zhongji Innolight — overseas cloud capex → direct 800G/1.6T orders; its gross/net margin elasticity is the steeper of the dual leaders (product mix more focused on high speeds).
• Branch stage: optical module main upward leg, in sync with Zhongji Innolight; overnight endorsement equal for both.
• Fundamentals check (akshare East Money basis, re-verified today): 2026H1 revenue RMB 20.91 billion +100.3%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 7.53 billion +91.0%; 9/30 close RMB 389.00, market cap RMB 542.55 billion, PE (TTM) ~41.4x — below Zhongji (A-share 43.9x), the valuation gap consistent with the "steeper margins" elasticity story.
• Industry position: one of the global optical module dual leaders.
• Technicals/sentiment: ChiNext ±20%, pre-holiday pullback with optical modules, overnight endorsement; more elastic than Zhongji — mind crowded institutional holdings.
• Final call: Zhongji's "same-branch alternative + high-elasticity version"; if optical leads on 10/8, Eoptolink likely outgains Zhongji; on divergence, it falls more. Lower risk tolerance → Zhongji; higher → Eoptolink; don't max both.

57 盛美上海688082Semi equipment · Leaderboard #7 · Watch closely (B+/59) · STAR ±20%

• Related news: 9/30 evening announcement: backlog as of 9/29 of RMB 17.073 billion, +88.2% YoY (Yicai²⁰); Micron raising capex confirms the industry expansion cycle (10/1 earnings basis).
• Positive logic: orders → direct revenue conversion (equipment acceptance basis, 12-18 months); plating + furnace second-curve H1 revenue RMB 1.102 billion +36.3%, cumulative ECP plating chamber shipments past 2,000.
• Branch stage: orders first, P&L later: H1 revenue RMB 3.718 billion, only +13.87% (the FY guide of RMB 8.2-8.8 billion means H2 must accelerate significantly).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 net profit attributable to parent RMB 0.989 billion +42.14%, ex-non-recurring RMB 0.571 billion -15.3% (Q2 mainly ~RMB 0.42 billion of non-recurring items); operating cash flow ~RMB 0.088 billion; gross margin 46.86%; debt ratio 29.55%. PE (TTM) ~84.5x.
• Industry position: domestic semiconductor cleaning equipment leader.
• Technicals/sentiment: STAR ±20%; at 84x PE without new order catalysts over the holiday, elasticity below memory.
• Final call: the orders are real, the profit quality is discounted; the bet is H2 "orders → P&L" delivery. If memory diverges on 10/8, it often becomes the equipment haven. Q3 report 10/29.

58 中远海能600026Oil & gas/shipping · Leaderboard #9 · Watch closely (B+/56) · main board ±10%

• Related news: Brent +4.34% this morning at USD 102.29/barrel, back above 100 on 10/1 (CLS.cn⁴); backdrop: the US-Iran war has run 6 months without stopping, and the Strait of Hormuz has never reopened (Caixin¹⁶).
• Positive logic: earns rates, not oil price — foreign-trade tanker revenue is set by VLCC rates; the geopolitical risk premium (rerouting, insurance, capacity tied up) pushes rates; oil above 100 usually amplifies rate elasticity (cargo-owner rush + floating storage). Note: this is a "war continues" beneficiary, not a pure mapping of "oil price up".
• Branch stage: tanker boom at a high plateau. H1 foreign-trade tanker revenue RMB 10.523 billion +43.9%, gross profit RMB 4.672 billion +262.4% (CLS.cn earnings read¹⁷); pre-holiday rates had fallen with easing expectations — if this morning's oil spike reflects talks breaking down, rates will follow.
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 net profit attributable to parent ~RMB 4.5 billion (pre-announcement basis +141%, interim report actually ~+143%, media relay — line-item original not verified; re-verify before 10/8); ex-non-recurring ~RMB 4.4 billion +148%; Q2 single-quarter net profit ~RMB 2.33 billion, +7% QoQ. World's largest tanker fleet (155 vessels, 22.576 million dwt, end-2025 basis). Latest TD3C/VLCC spot rates: no reliable data — the Q3 rate QoQ direction can't be quantified, listed as must-fill data before 10/8.
• Industry position: world #1 tanker owner by capacity, mainstay of China's oil import shipping.
• Technicals/sentiment: main board ±10%; tanker names fell pre-holiday with easing expectations (China Merchants Energy Shipping -6.24% in a single day on 9/22); the holiday oil spike hasn't been priced by A-shares (market closed) — a catch-up window exists on 10/8; but likewise, if a talks breakthrough emerges over the holiday, the delayed drop gets delivered too.
• Final call: the core name of the new holiday branch; the two-way attribute must top the page: buying it = buying "the US-Iran war continues", naturally opposed to money betting on peace. Keep the position light, track daily oil and talks news; the Q3 rate QoQ direction (Q3 report 10/29) is the fundamental verification point.

59 招商轮船601872Oil & gas/shipping · Leaderboard #12 · Watch closely (B+/50) · main board ±10%

• Related news: 9/30 evening announcement: subsidiary Hong Kong Ming Wah signed 6 VLOC 25-year long-term transport agreements, total value expected not less than USD 2.8 billion (East Money announcement²¹); this morning's oil rebound adds sentiment across the tanker chain.
• Positive logic: deep, locked participation in the Simandou project; but USD 2.8 billion over 25 years = ~RMB 0.8 billion per year, only ~2.8% of 2025 revenue, and the company explicitly stated "no significant impact on current-period profit"; newbuilds deliver in 2029-2030. Near-term elasticity still sits in tanker rates (50 VLCCs).
• Branch stage: event real, near-term elasticity low; the tanker supercycle is the main P&L driver (H1 tanker net profit ~RMB 6.2 billion vs dry bulk ~RMB 1.2 billion).
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 19.651 billion +56.15%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 6.96 billion +227.57%; operating cash flow RMB 8.131 billion (cash conversion 1.16); weighted ROE 15.61%; debt ratio 47.53%. PE (TTM) ~14.9x, PB ~3.47x at a historically high percentile.
• Industry position: #1 worldwide in VLOC operation + management with 37 vessels, 50 VLCCs.
• Technicals/sentiment: main board ±10%, fell -6.24% in a single day on 9/22 as rate expectations faded — the market has been taught its high volatility.
• Final call: treat it as a "Simandou + tanker rates" watch position, not a short-term catalyst; pick one vs COSCO Shipping Energy — pure rate elasticity → COSCO Shipping Energy; long-term agreements + dry bulk mix → China Merchants Energy Shipping.

510 韦尔股份603501Huawei chain · Leaderboard #18 · Watch only (B/45) · main board ±10%

• Related news: Mate90 launched and went on sale yesterday (whole lineup Kirin 9030/9035/9050 Pro, 30B on-device LLM, RMB 5,999-18,999); first-sale store feedback "selling very well, only a few units left" (Star Market Daily⁵, Sina⁹).
• Positive logic: the historical Mate-series main supplier is OmniVision (inferred from historical supply relationships), so sentiment mapping is direct; but media previously named SmartSens for the main-camera LOFIC sensor (IT Home, 9/16²²) — there is no BOM-grade public evidence for "Mate90 CIS main supplier", treat as supply-chain speculation. The company's September earnings call said "high-end share expanding, Q3 gross margin up QoQ".
• Branch stage: event-driven fermenting; no official first-sale numbers, sentiment sustained by store queues and "few units left".
• Fundamentals check: 2026H1 revenue RMB 14.025 billion, only +0.49%, net profit attributable to parent RMB 1.22 billion -39.85%; handset CIS revenue -30.98%; operating cash flow RMB 0.408 billion, -78%. Q3 guide: revenue RMB 7.578-8.13 billion (-3.2%+3.9% YoY), gross margin 29.35%-30.65%, recovering QoQ. 9/30 market cap RMB 103.4 billion, PE (TTM) ~31.9x.
• Industry position: CIS global top three, automotive first tier.
• Technicals/sentiment: main board ±10%, the Huawei chain's main sentiment name with the highest recognizability.
• Final call: the P&L can't catch Mate90 sentiment (H1 handset CIS -31%); if holiday first sales stay hot, on 10/8 it will be the first Huawei-chain name squeezed — that's a take-profit point, not a buy point. Wait for BOM teardowns and Q4 pull-in data.

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6. Pass List

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7. Intra-Branch Rankings

Branch 1: Memory supercycle (S) — holiday mainline, overnight real-gain endorsement

Hardest = 兆易创新; highest recognizability = 兆易创新/佰维存储; followers = 香农芯创/德明利/北京君正; Pass = small memory names without announcement proof. Overnight SK Hynix +5% is the strongest endorsement for "DRAM purity" names; niche follow-through and modules come next.

Branch 2: Optical communications/modules (A) — overnight sector-level real gains, smoothest holiday fermenting

Peer confirmation: overnight Coherent (optical components/modules) +10%, Lumentum (optical components) +7%, Ciena (optical networking) +7%, Corning (fiber) +4% — among A-share mappings, components → Tianfu, modules → Zhongji/Eoptolink, and fiber cable has no pure A-share mapping target.

Branch 3: Oil & gas/tanker shipping (B+, new entrant this holiday, two-way)

Mind the ranking logic: oil-price elasticity ≠ stock-price elasticity. Upstream (CNOOC) earns oil price but its A-share elasticity is diluted by the dividend attribute; midstream shipping earns rates — the steepest elasticity, and equally the steepest two-way risk.

Branch 4: Semiconductor equipment/domestic chain (A-, continuation)

Branch 5: Huawei chain Mate90 (B+, launch delivered, awaiting first-sale data)

Branch 6: AI compute/application mapping (B)

Branch 7: Auto chain (B, monthly data)

Branch 8: Increase-hold & buyback, events (B-, continuation)

东阳光 (Dongyangguang, 600673): dual increase-hold + buyback announcements (combined ~2.6% of market cap at the upper limit), fatal flaws of 71% debt ratio + ~40% pledge; watch only, await Q3 AI revenue recognition.

Branch 9: Lithium/solid-state (C, risk branch)

Yesterday's judgment stands: Shanghai Xiba and Times Wanheng official cooling + 3-board high flyers, a concentrated catch-down risk release zone on 10/8; CATL (300750) employee stock ownership is the branch's only positive event — a governance signal, not a catalyst; watch only.

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8. 10/8 (Thursday) Reopening Verification Signals

Premise: US stocks still have 4 trading days left in the holiday (10/2-10/7), and tonight's 20:30 US September nonfarm payrolls is the holiday's first two-way macro event — the signals in this section are subject to the final state on the eve of 10/8.

• Macro leading indicators (track daily through the holiday): ① Tonight's NFP: +0.09~0.1 million = mild cooling, risk appetite neutral-to-positive; significantly above expectations (>0.15 million) → hike expectations rise → 30Y Treasuries make a new high → valuation compression across all branches, high-β memory first; significantly below (<0.05 million) → recession narrative → cyclicals and tanker shipping fall first. ② Daily closes of US memory stocks (Micron / SK Hynix ADR / SanDisk) and optical names (Coherent / Lumentum) through the holiday: whether the mainlines keep delivering real gains is more honest than any headline. ③ Brent and tanker rates: holding above USD 102 vs falling back directly decides whether Branch 3 lives or dies.
• Hong Kong reference indicators: from today (10/2) HK opens normally (Stock Connect closed — foreign-priced, volume distorted but direction readable): daily moves of HK semiconductors such as SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) can serve as an indirect reference for 10/8 A-share semiconductor sentiment (foundry/manufacturing nature, indirect mapping to memory price hikes); compare after each close.
• Auction signals (thresholds differ by board — don't use one-size-fits-all): ① Main-board cores (兆易创新/中远海能): gap up ≤3% with auction volume not weaker than 9/30 = absorbable zone; gap up >5% in one move = take-profit window. ② 20cm names (江波龙/佰维存储/澜起科技/中际旭创): big normal swings — gap up ≤5-6% watch follow-through; gap up >10% treat as take-profit. ③ A one-way limit-up board on a small name without announcement proof = overheated-sentiment signal.
• Branch signals: ① 3 or more memory names quickly limit-up (兆易创新 leading is best) with the core's volume holding and no board break = branch resonance confirmed. ② Watch for a seesaw between optical modules and memory — if memory gaps up and fades while Zhongji/Eoptolink absorb and strengthen, mind the rotation. ③ Oil & gas/shipping: if Brent holds above USD 100 through the holiday, COSCO Shipping Energy / China Merchants Energy Shipping gap-ups on 10/8 are of the catch-up kind, with sustainability set by rates rather than a single day's oil move; if oil falls back below 95, the branch is downgraded straight to Pass.
• Stock-level signals: ① 兆易创新's first-5-minute follow-through (how fast the RMB 8.65 billion trapped overhead supply digests). ② On 20cm names, watch turnover, not sealed orders. ③ Whether Zhongji Innolight can reclaim the 9/29 losses (overnight overseas action gave ample reason). ④ If Zhishang Technology opens one-way or gaps up 15%+ , the depth of its sealed order book caps optical-comm sentiment — whether it breaks is the barometer for the optical back row.
• Risk signals: ① Gap-up then nosedive (memory's consensus gap-up turns red within 30 minutes) = pre-holiday exit money cashing out — avoid. ② A solo limit-up (only small names up, 兆易创新/澜起科技 not following) = fake resonance. ③ Core falling back is an alarm; back-row falling back is normal. ④ Xinhua Media's board opening = market-wide sentiment turning point. ⑤ If US stocks dump for consecutive days after the NFP (Nasdaq-scale), all β logic yields to index risk at the reopening. ⑥ Any headline with the word "breakthrough" in US-Iran talks = immediate exit signal for the tanker chain.

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9. Final Recommendations

① Today's 5 Most Watchable Stocks (facing the 10/8 reopening)

(Biwin Storage's 65 pts and Eoptolink's 64 pts differ by 1 pt; Biwin is the memory branch's second elasticity pick; each branch takes one elasticity slot — no duplicate recommendations.)

② Today's Top 3 Branches

③ Directions Not to Chase Today

• Lithium/solid-state high flyers: Shanghai Xiba and Times Wanheng official cooling + 3-board high flyers — a concentrated catch-down risk release zone on 10/8.
• Publishing/media high flyers: Xinhua Media's 7-board solo with no volume — its board opening after the holiday = the market-wide sentiment turning point; don't pass the baton.
• Huawei mappings without BOM proof: Mate90 is launched and first sales have no official numbers; every "supply-chain concept stock" is a lottery ticket until the teardown report; Will Semiconductor's P&L (H1 handset CIS -31%) can't catch the sentiment.
• MoU / soft-news sentiment plays: Zhishang Technology (TTM loss), Everbright Photonics (earnings-call remarks), Naruida (small cross-over M&A) — the announcements/remarks are real, the delivery is far away.
• Chasing tankers as a one-way oil bet: COSCO Shipping Energy / China Merchants Energy Shipping are "war continuation" options; any breakthrough in US-Iran talks double-kills them — the position must be lighter than the memory/optical mainlines.

④ Final One-Liner

On holiday day 2, the mainlines made the key leap from "narrative" to "real gains" — overnight US optical comm (Coherent +10%) and memory (SK Hynix +5%) surged at the sector level, stamping money endorsement on the memory + optical dual mainlines for the 10/8 reopening; the new variable is Brent above USD 102 pulling the tanker chain back onto the list (two-way, light position); tonight's NFP and the 4 remaining US trading days are still the macro variable hanging over every conclusion — the order of judgment is unchanged: first watch whether Micron / SK Hynix keep rising through the holiday and whether Treasuries move after the NFP, then the daily indirect reference HK gives starting today, and only then the stocks: main-board cores gapping up ≤3% and 20cm names gapping up ≤6% are opportunities; a one-move gap-up is a take-profit.

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⚠️ Risk warning: this list is only a pre-market information roundup and observation set, not investment advice. A-share volatility risk is extremely high; auto-generated content may carry information time-lags or industry-chain mapping errors and must not be used directly as a trading basis. Overseas markets keep trading during the National Day holiday (10/1-10/7); tonight's US September nonfarm payrolls and holiday news may significantly change the 10/8 reopening pricing — please overlay the latest holiday information on top of this list and judge independently.